I'm sorry @bbclaurak but I fundamentally disagree with this. You fail to reflect the scale & import of the alleged wrong-doing. You make predictions about its impact based on this faulty analysis. And in so doing, you're playing an active & (inappropriate) part in its fall-out
The political fall-out depends upon 2 things: 1) The press 2) Parliament. Your role as @BBC political editor gives you pivotal role in both. It's hugely premature to second-guess impact in place of reporting the story. Whether you can see it or not, you are steering the reaction
An alternative analysis..
I have no idea what the political fall-out will be. Because that's a matter for politicians. And it hasn't fallen out yet.
You can follow @carolecadwalla.