1/ Here’s a thing.
Forget “trade war” tensions with CHINA.
A low probability, very high magnitude event that would surprise most, send shocks to markets and be top headline globally:
A Crimea -like move by CHINA on Taiwan...
2/ The symbolic “groundwork” has been laid.
The bridge socializing us to natural extension + (re)connection to Hong Kong (finished weeks ago) after Hong Kong’s now 20yr return to China 🇨🇳from Britain🇬🇧.
6/ The odds are very low. But the stakes high.
What global distraction or preoccupation—or what potentially engineered domestic or coastal crisis might cause China to make a move to ‘protect or reclaim’ Taiwan?
What would US reaction be?
What leverage may China use to mute it?
7/ And 6 weeks later...BINGO.
8/ I mean...this is not even like subtle nuance. “Would you like to come up and see my sketches?”
9/ April 2019
You can follow @wolfejosh.
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