Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh VC, entrepreneur, fund manager @Lux_Capital; Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep; Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst; CoFounder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe Nov. 12, 2018 1 min read

1/ Here’s a thing.

Forget “trade war” tensions with CHINA.

A low probability, very high magnitude event that would surprise most, send shocks to markets and be top headline globally:

A Crimea -like move by CHINA on Taiwan...

2/ The symbolic “groundwork” has been laid.
The bridge socializing us to natural extension + (re)connection to Hong Kong (finished weeks ago) after Hong Kong’s now 20yr return to China 🇨🇳from Britain🇬🇧.

3/ Taiwan has major US navy fleet with China naval HQ at Zhanjiang in the south + Ningbo to the north of Taiwan...

4/ Notably if you do a search for “taiwan strait”—

Look at what image pops up next to the map...

5/ Let’s expand that image with some headlines from a few months ago...

6/ The odds are very low. But the stakes high.

What global distraction or preoccupation—or what potentially engineered domestic or coastal crisis might cause China to make a move to ‘protect or reclaim’ Taiwan?

What would US reaction be?
What leverage may China use to mute it?

7/ And 6 weeks later...BINGO.

8/ I mean...this is not even like subtle nuance. “Would you like to come up and see my sketches?”

9/ April 2019

10/ From today— China warns it can send army into Hong Kong...

You can follow @wolfejosh.


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