Josh Wolfe+ Your Authors @wolfejosh Co-Founder @Lux_Capital Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe Dec. 31, 2018 1 min read + Your Authors

1/ Markets measure EXPECTATIONS.

And expectations...of expectations (in short-term as voting machines or long-term as weighing machines of fundamentals)

Global expectations (of the next chapter of history) got darker...

2/ CHINA markets entered trade war, saw gov crackdown on leverage, had funds liquidiated and lost 25% of value—$2 Trillion... becoming world’s worst performing stock market...

3/ Here is tweet from 3 years ago, the leverage in China was widely known. Question was if + when gov would act.

4/ Today Q is if investors see what the cynic sees... inducement of foreign investment into high-tech high-growth China which is really directed by gov’s not so invisible hand(see Jack Ma)—& may be used to bail out old China.

5/ When in Hangzhou some mos ago at “Fund town” a complex modeled on Greenwich CT, dedicated to 1,000+ hedge funds (built in 3 years)—i asked how they run their Long/Short portfolios

“Short?—Oh NO, we cannot short.“

There’s no “hedge”—it is only marketing to retail to buy long

6/ BABA today $139–was $180 a few weeks ago before Jack Ma ‘voluntarily’ retired.

You can follow @wolfejosh.


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