Steve Bullock @GuitarMoog Immigrant, Musician, Sound Engineer, SNP, ex-negotiator for UK in EU. Brother of @JuliaKayPotts. Supporter of @FinalSayForAll. Jan. 28, 2019 2 min read

This week UKGov & Parliament effectively have to decide to revoke Article 50.

An act is probably needed. It took 7 weeks to pass the Art50 Act. It's 8 full weeks until Brexit day.

An extension is not guaranteed, even if legislated for.

Revoking is now the only sane option. 1/

I have argued for a #FinalSayForAll referendum. I still believe this is the best (least bad) route to either get popular consent to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement, or reject it and remain a member of th EU. 2/

Unfortunately, this process was started by a referendum, along with some rash political promises regarding it. To maintain popular consent for government and our system of government, a referendum is the best way to end it, either positively or negatively. 3/

This can still be done. The Art50 extension necessary is extremely likely to be agreed by EU27 if it is for a plan with a definite, time-bound, and definitive ratify or remain answer. 4/

But there's the rub. That would be for a plan. An extension of 3 months is not much use anyway, and a much longer one is, without a definite plan from the UK side, much less likely to be agreed to by EU27. 5/

Ditching the backstop, or time-limiting it, is fantasy. Forget it. Even if UK said it wanted a permanent Customs Union and the necessary, permanent, regulatory alignment, a backstop would still be needed in the WA in case that didn't end up happening. 6/

No deal is a UK-wide catastrophe of epic proportions, that doesn't have a sliver of a mandate. You can argue all they want that that is what people voted for, but all of the leave campaigns campaigned on the basis that there would be an agreement and not No Deal. 7/

The Withdrawal Agreement, and particularly the Political Declaration, is a poor basis on which to leave the EU. The PD leaves most important questions on the future relationship open, so Parliament would be agreeing to it blind. 8/

The Govt's intentions, for the future relationship, so far as we know them, veer between the unachievable, the untrue, and the damaging.

Parliament is right to reject it, lest it be effectively forced to accept whatever comes out of those negotiations or face a new cliff-edge.9/

So, if Parliament will not agree a plan that would convince EU27 to grant an Art50 extension, such as a #FinalSay referendum, an extension is very far from guaranteed, no matter what amendments are successful this week. 10/

We're out of options, and revocation has become the only way to guarantee that No Deal is avoided. 11/

This may not need legislation. @davidallengreen has argued that it is not. Other eminent legal minds have argued that it is. As the deadline looms for legislation to be brought though, and with little time to get a definitive answer, that legislation needs to be brought. 12/12

P.S., thread by @davidallengreen on whether legislation is needed or not, and what that means.

P.P.S. No idea why autocorrect apparently changed 'does' to 'is' twice in tweet 12.


You can follow @GuitarMoog.



Bookmark

____
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.

Enjoy Threader? Sign up.