Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh VC, entrepreneur, fund manager @Lux_Capital; Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep; Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst; CoFounder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe Feb. 19, 2019 1 min read

1/ Last year (Feb ‘18) at a private stock picking competition (run by legendary investor friend)—I presented two SHORT ideas.

A pair of names each crashed down over 40%.

Here was the THESIS + PITCH
(with great help + thinking from a rockstar investor friend ‘S.H.,’)...

2/ It was not about Tesla directly but about a MISTAKEN NARRATIVE—about Lithium + EVs.

And an asset bubble around an input that was way less important + way less scarce + way more abundant than most investors believed....

(Cobalt supply + price mattered more)...

3/ A few more charts before the rest of the THESIS + the results...

4/ There was a visible supply response + the junior miners were most vulnerable with too-weak capital structures + too-high expectations...

5/ And the results: 1 year later

Orocobre - down 55%
Galaxy - down 43%

6/ Was reminded to share now, 1 year later—after WSJ reported this today...

rel="nofollow"> https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-get-burned-after-betting-on-electric-car-metals-11550404801?redirect=amp#click= class='tco-ellipsis'> 


You can follow @wolfejosh.



Bookmark

____
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.

Enjoy Threader? Sign up.

Threader is an independent project created by only two developers. The site gets 500,000+ visits a month and our iOS Twitter client was featured as an App of the Day by Apple. Running this space is expensive and time consuming. If you find Threader useful, please consider supporting us to make it a sustainable project.