Josh Wolfe
+ Your AuthorsArchive @wolfejosh Co-Founder @Lux_Capital Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe Feb. 19, 2019 1 min read

1/ Last year (Feb ‘18) at a private stock picking competition (run by legendary investor friend)—I presented two SHORT ideas.

A pair of names each crashed down over 40%.

Here was the THESIS + PITCH
(with great help + thinking from a rockstar investor friend ‘S.H.,’)...

2/ It was not about Tesla directly but about a MISTAKEN NARRATIVE—about Lithium + EVs.

And an asset bubble around an input that was way less important + way less scarce + way more abundant than most investors believed....

(Cobalt supply + price mattered more)...

3/ A few more charts before the rest of the THESIS + the results...

4/ There was a visible supply response + the junior miners were most vulnerable with too-weak capital structures + too-high expectations...

5/ And the results: 1 year later

Orocobre - down 55%
Galaxy - down 43%

6/ Was reminded to share now, 1 year later—after WSJ reported this today... class='tco-ellipsis'> 

You can follow @wolfejosh.


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