This un-cheery thread hits the nail on the head - UK must agree to EP elections and a way forward or it’s No Deal, and this Govt can’t be relied on to do either, particularly the latter.
Parliament must take control and force its hand. 1/
This mean Parliament coalescing around a proposal. This week no individual one got a majority, though some came closer than expected.
But they were not all mutually exclusive. You can break them down into a) models for the future relationship (CU, Common Market 2.0 etc) and b) questions of process (People’s Vote, No Deal Backstop). 3/
So the way to find a majority must be to combine options from list a) and list b). This needs compromise, but not nearly as much as some might think. 4/
From the point of view of proponents of different models, no one is going to get a majority. They all have flaws either in obtainability, in not going far enough to mitigate harm and/or in not providing a solution for the IE/NI border. 5/
Combine them with a requirement for a Ratify vs Remain Ref though, and, preferably, a no-No Deal lock, and they might. Those provisions would also be likely to satisfy EU27 that there’s a viable way forward and get a he extension needed. 6/
Proponents of a People’s Vote also need to compromise. Any ref required an option to ratify or not ratify. MPs would need to hold their noses and vote for something that they believe is a bad idea. I wouldn’t characterise it as that though. Not at all. 7/
On the contrary, they’d be voting for the worst case scenario to move from a catastrophic No Deal to a less damaging option than the others available (including May’s) AND moving the best case scenario from May’s Deal to no Brexit. 8/
If the factions can work together properly over the weekend, the opportunity is there to find a majority. That’s not enough though. 9/
Parliament must take control of its time again and put all of this - the long extension, holding EP elections, mandate to negotiate changes to the Political Declaration and requirement for a ref - into law. The PM & Govt can’t be trusted otherwise, and frankly EU27 know that. 10/
Now‘s not the time for timidity, pretence, weasel words or tribalism. This might be the only way we get to a softer Brexit or no Brexit (preferably) and avoid No Deal. Parliament can do this if it wants to. 11/11
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