Ramez Naam @ramez Books: Nexus Series / The Infinite Resource. Faculty @SingularityU. Energy, climate, & innovation wonk. Optimist. Apr. 09, 2019 1 min read

Ever-cheaper solar, wind, and storage have reduced the estimated cost to curb climate change by $10 Trillion. Spotted by @drvox  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-09/cheap-renewables-shave-10-trillion-off-estimate-to-curb-warming  1/

They'll keep on dropping the price further. Over the coming decades, solar prices will drop by two thirds, wind prices by half (particularly offshore), energy storage prices by another 80-90%. Until it's cheaper to decarbonize electricity than to leave fossil plants running. 2/

And then the same will happen with ground transport. We see that now. The total cost of ownership (per mile driven) of EVs is either cheaper than that of similar gasoline cars, or about to be. Electric trucks will be the same. 3/

Eventually, economics will take over, driving the bulk of ground transport to electric, due to EVs greater simplicity, lower manufacturing cost, 75% lower energy costs, 75% lower maintenance costs, etc.. 4/

So, for the 35-40% of global emissions that are electricity and ground transport, the cost of electrifying may well be effectively zero. Or negative. It may save the world money to do so. 5/

Does that mean we're home free? No.
1) The pace of this in both electricity and transport may still be too slow for what we need to do.
2) There's still the *harder* problems of reducing emissions from agriculture, deforestation, industry, and heat. We need to get on those. 6/

I wrote more about those hard climate problems (agriculture, deforestation, industry - like steel and cement and manufacturing, and building heat) at this article:  https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/15/how-to-decarbonize-america-and-the-world/  fin/

You can follow @ramez.


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