DHH @dhh Creator of Ruby on Rails, Founder & CTO at Basecamp, NYT best-selling author, and Le Mans 24h class-winning racing driver. Apr. 11, 2019 1 min read

"We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles", says Ford CEO. If only Musk could be as honest about Tesla's ludicrous claims of totally self-driving cars by next year's end.  https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/10/ford-ceo-says-the-company-overestimated-self-driving-cars/ 

“I think we will be ‘feature-complete’ on full self-driving this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I am certain of that", Elon Musk  https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-full-self-driving-2019-2020-promise/ 

Not that Musk isn't in good company. Plenty of very smart people thought that general AI was closed at hand in the 50s and 60s. Yet here we are, 60 years later, and the dream of a general-purpose AI is still just that. A dream.

Doesn't mean it won't happen one day. Just like virtual reality on the grand Lawmower Man scale is probably going to happen one day too. But fully autonomous driving is nowhere near ready to drive sleeping passengers around without intervention by next year.

The real kicker is when the markets will factor in the reality that autonomous driving is not going to bail out Uber and Lyft. That investing in either on the premise that they'll soon be able to do without paying those pesky humans is a delusion.


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