Matthew Ball @ballmatthew Venture investor, strategist, essayist, that guy on Twitter. Prev. Head of Strategy @AmazonStudios, ex-Otter Media, @MediaREDEF. 🇨🇦 Apr. 16, 2019 1 min read

Netflix bears are getting particularly vicious lately. Netflix has encountered a lot of supposed threats in the past, from Hulu to Amazon, YouTube, Facebook and "withheld content".

By the time anyone even starts to compete, Netflix will be at 175-200MM subscribers.

This is more than 2x the second largest subscription service globally, which isn't even in video, but audio.

For all the market change and law of large numbers, Netflix annual growth has been remarkably consistent: 41%, 33%, 29%, 30%, 25%, 25%, 26%. From 30MM to 50MM.

If Netflix just stabilized its annual content spend growth in 2017, it would have seen +$700MM in cash flow. If 2018 had been flat, it would have generated +$400MM

All NFLX needs is stop spend growth to solve cash losses. But why do so while their advantage is still widening?

As a reminder, Netflix's catalogue has shrunk my 66% since 2014, its pricing grown by 40%, subs are up 67% (despite moving into late adopters) and engagement is stable (despite said late, less consumptive adopters).

That's astonishing and rebuts claims of Netflix's frailty

You can follow @ballmatthew.


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