Gavin Baker+ Your Authors @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. investorfieldguide.com/baker/ No investment advice, views all my own. Apr. 30, 2019 2 min read + Your Authors

1) $GOOGL. Revenue growth deceleration due to changes in Youtube recommendation algorithm isn’t a concern, overall has the most latent potential of any large technology company in its existing businesses & is second only to $NFLX in obviously underearning today.

2) Maps. I’m not sure I believe the “superapp” potential that seems to be making the rounds, but it is certainly dramatically undermonetized and has immense strategic value as we move towards autonomous vehicles and augmented reality

3) Cloud. G-Suite – the product is better than every part of Office except Excel and there is a significant share gain opportunity – just need to develop a better GTM here. Love to see them buy Slack. Also think the time may be right for them to cut GCP prices again.

4) Hardware. The Nexus is superior to the iPhone (I have them both), especially the camera, and while iMessage is tough to give up, so was BBM. Competitive gap should increase going forward given the HTC acqui-hire. Google home clearly better than Alexa. Nest needs some love.

5) Android/Chrome: Music, Messaging and Payments. It took real effort on Google’s part to avoid having a compelling music, messaging or payments product given their ownership of Android and Chrome. At some point they will get one or all of these right - even if only by accident

6) Youtube. 50-70%ish of $FB in terms of time spent & growing faster. Fascinating that video ads turned out to be less valuable than newsfeed ads – suspect we will eventually see an “unlock” here. Surprised move from Doubleclick to search ads system wasn’t more impactful.

7) Other bets. Google is often dismissed in the valley as a “country club” where people work 10-3, and that may very well be true, but it also seems like there are truly exceptional people there who pushing the frontiers of technology. Waymo, Quantum Computing, etc.

8) Deepmind. Demis Hassabis is laser focused on AGI and if anyone develops this in our lifetime, think it is likely Deepmind/$GOOGL. Would be one of the most important moments in human history and obviously create a lot of value!

9) And of course, CAC is the new rent. Digital advertising market much bigger than anyone is modeling and overwhelming majority of all advertising spend is likely to be filtered through the $GOOGL, $FB and $AMZN datasets (in US/Europe).


You can follow @GavinSBaker.



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