Daniel Sinclair @_DanielSinclair Building for young people. Not reading @danielsunread. Lurking behind likes and thinking about social media, communication, & China. May. 19, 2019 1 min read

It's hard to believe that this is such a surprise to so much of the industry. The writing was on the wall for this 2 years ago.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-alphabet-exclusive-idUSKCN1SP0NB 

Huawei already dropped Google's future Fuchsia OS. It wouldn't meet their needs — Google was the limiting factor. They've been building their own OS since at least 2016 and have adopted a new mini-program spec with 8 other Chinese smartphone manufacturers.

Let's talk about Dragonfly. The narrative around Google entering the Chinese market was always wrong. Here is what I think they actually wanted:

The Schmidt interview is helpful framing for this too. Many believed the consumer divergence had already happened. It is happening at the platform and protocol level now too.

We'll see this proven false: "App-less operating systems simply do not stand a chance against the contemporary iOS-Android duopoly." Between 2017 and 2018, WeChat grew from 0 to 1M mini-programs, becoming half the size of the App Store, which took 10 years  https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/20/18632266/huawei-android-google-ban-phone-business-future 

"Huawei has been building an alternative to Android for the past 7 years... The timeline suggests it was anticipating possible trouble as long as a decade ago. 'As we have noted before, Huawei does have backup systems for use in extenuating circumstances'"  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/huawei-operating-system-built-in-secret-for-7-years---report.html 

“Google is now lobbying for an Android exemption from the Huawei ban, arguing that the ban on Huawei will raise national security risks to the US.” China is about to hit escape velocity. Google knows.  http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1153913.shtml 

Temporary cease-fire, it seems. Trump announced that the Treasury Department will be removing Huawei from the blacklist.  https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3016610/donald-trump-speaks-g20-summit-after-breakthrough-meeting-xi-jinping 

This comes after Huawei ‘rebranded’ U.S. operations, spun off at least 1 sister company, and already has buy-in from American companies willing to skirt the blacklist. It was certainly a wake up call — but an ineffective hurdle. What will Google do?  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-26/u-s-companies-are-finding-a-legal-way-around-huawei-blacklist 

"We worked on this project with Google for a year and made a lot of progress. Then everything suddenly stopped" *gasps*  https://www.theinformation.com/articles/huawei-and-google-were-working-on-new-smart-speaker-before-trumps-ban 

You can follow @_DanielSinclair.


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