Exclusive Goldman Macro Leaders event in London last night. Sad to see how the even the most talented in HF business are struggling to keep assets as the entire industry slowly shrinks, losing out to PE and VC. Risk taking is equally muted, with 1/
most macro players looking for continued slow growth globally but very gun shy in positions still, across the board. Low vol is keeping people out along with fears of policy responses such as the about turn from the Fed. Nov to March V shape psychologically hurt everyone. 2/
So, consensus is net negative growth but people aren’t really positioned out of fear of being wrong. Again, much comes down to the dollar. As it breaks one way or the other (my view is up), people will be forced to add risk, fast...3/
I’ve done three of these types of events this year - this GS event, the GMI Round Table and the Founders and Legends dinner and all had the same subdued vibe in terms of low risk appetite and concerns over the industry. In my experience, usually means things are about to change!
From my perspective, not having to run a hedge fund with the issues that entails these days, I stongly believe this is one of the best macro environments I’ve seen with many, many great opportunities and few people involved.
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