Peter Foster @pmdfoster Europe Editor of the Daily Telegraph. Formerly based in Washington DC, Beijing and New Delhi. Opinions my own. Jun. 11, 2019 2 min read

So this morning you may have read versions of the "EU fixes Irish border" in event of a #brexit no deal....and yet 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 today NI civil service publishes paper on what 'no deal' looks like for Northern Irish businesses. What did they find? (Tldr: it's not good!) 1/Thread

The NI gov asked to serious experts to probe what could be done to 'facilitate' trade in a 'no deal world' - particularly for SMEs and 'micro' (sub 10 employees) businesses who will face full tariffs heading south in Ireland (and tariff-free goods piling north).../2

THIS: from the summary: "Overall the report is a sobering reflection of the limited room for manoeuvre for businesses and government in a no deal context."

Do I need to translate? "Sobering" is mandarin-speak for "full-blown shitshow". /3

HERE: https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/economy/Cover-note-report-customs-facilitations-no-deal.pdf 

Shall I do some more translating

"significant challenges" - they'll get their arses handed to them.

"economically unviable" - you is goin bust pal /4

And it's double bad news for NI SMEs and Micros who export, because...

- 80% of micro-enterprises (enterprises employing fewer than 10 people) in NI who
export, *only* export to RoI. 7

- 70% of SMEs (10 and 49 people) who export, *only* do so to RoI.

Soz about that lads/5

But what about all that stuff about customs-input-data-drones-registered-consignee-point-to-point-blockchain...mmm.. surely that must mean that all those SMEs, particularly those that do agrifoods, they'll be alright, won't they? /6

Oh dang. More mandarin speak:

"As such, while customs procedures such as inward processing can be considered, applications generally take several months and so could not be used immediately in a no-deal scenario."

Ouch. Hope those SMEs/Micros got massive cash surpluses... /7

But anyway, aren't those nice Europeans (see opening Tweet) going to fix all this..with technology and zero-infrastructure and legal derogations?

Just hang there a sec while I check those latest 'no deal' state of play notice (the one that report was based on) /8

Still thumbing those pages....mmm...must be legal derogation here somewhere...or maybe some other exemptions?

Oh dear. Can't find any. Which is a problem because otherwise all the 'fixes' need 'infrastructure'....let's go back to those manadarins /9

"many of the facilitations available within existing rules presuppose infrastructure at (or near) the border. Notwithstanding the UK Govt's no deal land border policy...these findings *confirm the challenges* of a no deal exit."

Dontyajustluv a bit of academic understatement? /9

In conclusion: "The report provides further evidence of the difficulties that would arise in continuing
status quo trade between NI and Ireland in a no deal context and of the consequent risk to the NI economy."

Which will be great for the peace process, right? 10/ENDS

PS...read the whole report here..designated roads, back-to-back logistics centres on the @BorderIrish etc.

 https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/economy/Report-Irish-Land-Border-Existing-Potential-Customs-Facilitations-No-Deal-Scenario.pdf 

PPS... about the authors.


You can follow @pmdfoster.



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