Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh VC, entrepreneur, fund manager @Lux_Capital; Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep; Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst; CoFounder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe Jun. 12, 2019 1 min read

1/ CRAZY SPECULATION

If current tech boom busts—

—the straw that broke its back may be traced back to 2 things: legistlature + leverage.

LEGISLATURE: 10 Attorneys Generals (including Letitia James (NY) + Xavier Becerra (CA) oppose Sprint TMobile merger
 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/11/business/sprint-tmobile-merger.html 

2/ LEVERAGE: Softbank owns 84% of Sprint which makes up 30% of its total liabilities. Post merger it would own 27% of combined co’s.
And this is the 3rd attempt in 5 years to do the deal. If it fell thru, Softbank is stuck with no-growth Sprint + ton of debt....

3/ That debt + rumors of at worst troubles + at best more modest ambitions of raising Vision Fund 2—would eliminate a key marginal price setter + referencable comp underlying many (ridiculous) valuations.

ILLIQUIDITY.


You can follow @wolfejosh.



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