Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Founder/CEO - Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group, Business Cycle Economist, Investment Strategist, Economic Historian, Traveller and Rum Drinker.. Jun. 19, 2019 1 min read

The Barclays Global Macro Survey sums everything up nicely...a completely spilt market of zero consensus...

For example it is an even split between those who thought the surprise in growth was to the upside or downside...

And it was a complete split as to whether this is a soft patch or the end of the cycle...

And asset allocation was similarly all over the place... with Equities, EM and Fixed Income all deemed attractive, but generally risk on was the tone.

So, with everyone nicely dispersed there is plenty of room for a large move either way once the growth question gets closer to being resolved. Meanwhile, the ECRI, which does a good job at measuring the business cycle and GDP growth, is falling again...

And Global Semi's are leading, suggesting the cycle is going to continue to weaken...

But it's not just Semi's.. all shipments are in sharp contraction too...

And this is going to drag down the world PMI...

So, things currently look weaker than most people predict...but heaven forbid if the dollar breaks out, then we have a much bigger problem. The ADXY, index of Asian currencies is just 1.9% away from the largest support line Ive ever seen in FX...

And that makes bonds super interesting still. Let's see how the Fed plays out today. All sell off's are a buying opportunity, for me. I still expect 100bps of cuts this year and but continually assess as new data come in, but a sharp rise in the $ would make me accelerate my view


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