Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Founder/CEO - Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group, Business Cycle Economist, Investment Strategist, Economic Historian, Traveller and Rum Drinker.. Jul. 07, 2019 1 min read

L'et just catch up on the EU data as there is some pushback that the PMI is only manufacturing and therefore Europe is fine. I reject that hypothesis as the base case because of the following simple data sets:

Germany, the largest EU nation, is almost at zero GDP growth and the ZEW suggests its going to go negative to -2%

Italy, the second largest nation, is already at zero and the LEI is pointing towards a significant contraction...

In France, things are slowing too and is approaching stall speed...

Spain is the bright spot...

But Holland is forecast to weaken...

And Portugal is too...

So, things are somewhat precarious. The ECB has already indicated that they will cut. So far, the slowdown is mild but a mild slowdown and lower rates will tip the banking sector over, most likely. Again, Im looking at probabilities here, not certainties. But this is tradable.


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