L'et just catch up on the EU data as there is some pushback that the PMI is only manufacturing and therefore Europe is fine. I reject that hypothesis as the base case because of the following simple data sets:
So, things are somewhat precarious. The ECB has already indicated that they will cut. So far, the slowdown is mild but a mild slowdown and lower rates will tip the banking sector over, most likely. Again, Im looking at probabilities here, not certainties. But this is tradable.
You can follow @RaoulGMI.
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