In late 2014, I said Go would be solved within the next 5 years (with the expectation that DL would play a role). AlphaGo certainly happened unexpectedly early, but not 20 years early. A few years early.
In the other direction, through 2015-2017 I was correctly tweeting that L5 self-driving was *not* around the corner. In 2018 I made a bet predicting robotaxis with no safety drivers would not be deployed commercially to the general public before 2023
If you know what *abilities* (potential) current AI techniques possess and what abilities are required for a given task, you can roughly time short-term applications
What you can't do is make 10+ year predictions, because what new abilities will be available is v hard to predict
You can follow @fchollet.
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