Peter Foster @pmdfoster Europe Editor of the Daily Telegraph. Formerly based in Washington DC, Beijing and New Delhi. Opinions my own. Jul. 28, 2019 2 min read

So. Co-ordinated “we’re really, serious” about ‘no deal’ #brexit in papers this am. Is it believable? Or for show?

For EG @ShippersUnbound report saying @michaelgove will chair daily committee to deliver...and @sajidjavid saying money is no object...but is money the issue? 1/

Time is more important constraint than money...with less than 100 days to Brexit.

What about those 500 border guards? This notice about how long it takes to train a guard (a year to recruit, three to fully train) gives an idea. /2

Because money doesn’t always help.

A year ago HM Treasury made £8m available for training on customs processes, but understand take-up very limited.

This is probably due to poor communications from give. But shows spending money can be harder than promising it. /3

A similar but great problem exists with business preps for trade with EU after a no deal.

Per @RHARichardB to me only about 40% of business that need them even have an EORI customs number - see this thread. /4

But let’s say, sake of argument, the @BorisJohnson “effect” works and everyone suddenly believes it’s a ‘no deal’ and tried to get act together?

That helps, they can go online, get registered and educated but then they need help. Customs clearance agents.../5

Like the Border Force agents they can’t be stood up overnight...or in 100 days...and I’m told that big logistics companies have said they don’t have capacity beyond helping existing clients. /6

Then there is the issue of stockpiling and warehouse space, which is in very short supply and - again - can’t be built in <100 days. /7

Time/bottleneck constraints aside - there is the issue of Northern Ireland, that damn stone on the Brexiteers shoe.

As I reported on Friday, you will need to legislate for Direct Rule... which @Jacob_Rees_Mogg was careful not to rule out. /8

 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1154855766853136384.html 

None of this is to even mention the major pieces of ‘No Deal’ preparation legalisation that has not been passed - on trade, financial services, immigration etc.

Look out for a new @instituteforgov report on this tomorrow AM by @jl_owen and co. /9

To be clear, none of the above prevents a ‘no deal’

Not clear Parliament can do this either, except by revoking Art 50.

None of it means no deal is the ‘end of the world’

But it means it will be a real mess. Economically. constitutionally.

Is that what they want? Mmm? Ends


You can follow @pmdfoster.



Bookmark

____
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.

Enjoy Threader? Sign up.

Threader is an independent project created by only two developers. The site gets 500,000+ visits a month and our iOS Twitter client was featured as an App of the Day by Apple. Running this space is expensive and time consuming. If you find Threader useful, please consider supporting us to make it a sustainable project.