Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly Trial lawyer by day. Cookie monster by night. Jul. 29, 2019 1 min read

They're Dem / Dem-leaning, but it is interesting that, among white non-college voters (the core Trump demographic), top 3 are:

Biden 33%
Warren 15%
Harris 14%

And among that same group Warren wins for "best policy ideas" with 28%.

And speaking of "electability"...
/1

Look carefully at this one. Again, they're Dem / Dem-leaning, but fully 19% of white non-college voters said that Harris (10%) or Warren (9%) had the best chance of beating Trump.

The NYTimes churns out two op-eds every day claiming that is impossible.
/2

Indeed, among all white no-college (not just Dem-leaning), 45% will definitely vote for Trump, but 41% will definitely *not* vote for him.

They were +28 for him in 2016, and Trump still just barely won WI/MI/PA. He can't win at all with anything like these numbers.

/end

I agree. In 2016, Trump barely won with:
white college +4
white non-college +28

GOP didn't reach either in 2018 (they were -6 and +21), and current polling suggests Trump's at least 10 points too low in both.


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