China was the first place to signal to me that the world had gone from reflation to disinflation back in Spring 2018, asset after asset followed suit thereafter. China bounced somewhat this year but it now rolling over...
The Shanghai Comp has formed a smaller degree GMI Crash Pattern (a dramatic sounding failed rally) and will confirm on any prices lower than here. It would suggest that the market backdrop is again moving from benign to more risk averse.
And that would be consistent with commodity prices deflating from the demand shock and the dollar translation effects. The CRB Index is very close to its CLIFF of DEATH... and a larger deflationary rise in the dollar would knock the CRB off the cliff...
But Gold will probably correct for a good while now (the dollar is too strong for golf in $ terms to go up)... and re-test the break out. But gold is outperforming almost every other currency in the world right now.
Pay Attention! It's an extremely interesting time for Global Macro. There is a "shit ton"* going on and we need to focus.
*official Global Macro term for "considerable amount".
Good luck all.
You can follow @RaoulGMI.
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