Another industry source says 350,000 workers have been laid off since April. Fallout could be huge. The sector employs 35+ million people, accounting for ~half of India's manufacturing output.
India's jobless rate rose to 7.51% in July 2019 from 5.66% a year earlier, per CMIE.
2. India’s auto sector slump and increasing jobless rate could in turn impact US and Eurozone economies, as laid off workers scale back purchases of US, European products, travel. India’s auto sector also makes use of software and technologies produced by US, European companies.
3. Re impact on Indian economy of US sanctions on Iran: Iran is one of India’s biggest oil suppliers (a role Iraq and Saudi Arabia could take over); its investment in Iran's Chabahar port plays a key role in India's trade connectivity with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Europe.
4. If US sanctions on Iran continue to drive up oil prices and decimate India’s auto industry, US could end up shooting itself in the foot when Indian consumers affected by a slowing Indian economy scale back purchases of products made by US multinationals
5. Layoffs on a massive scale in India could increase political instability and cause violence there; due to the interlinked nature of the globalized economy, also cause layoffs in US and Canada, increasing risk of depression, suicides and shootings in North America.
6. Friends who work in software sales (SaaS) in Bay Area and New York tell me they’re working longer hours and spending less time with their spouses and kids due to sluggish sales in India, China. Rarely do politicians think through “collateral damage” consequences of sanctions.
7. Some have admitted to drinking more (which is causing them to sleep less and become more irritable) to cope with the pressure to meet sales goals. I suspect these are not unique cases and the canary in the coal mine of bigger societal problems to come.
8. A “booming economy” that is the result of people working longer hours for lower wages, abusing drugs, taking fewer vacation days, and neglecting their kids, may also mask deeper societal problems that manifest later in the form of suicides and mass shootings.
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