I keep wondering, why is it so difficult for analysts to believe that we're closing in a global economic crisis?
When we started to warn about the approaching collapse two years ago, I wholeheartedly understood that only few listened. 👇
However, ... 1/
...things are radically different now.
We now know that the expansion since 2009 has been massively supported by the central banks and mostly China.
As a results of this, the global productivity growth collapsed, while the balance sheet of central banks "exploded. 2/
As we've warned since September 2017, the ability of China to uphold the debt-fueled global expansion is in irreversible decline: http://gnseconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Q-review-3_2017.pdf …
It's also plainly obvious that the negative int. rates and QE -programs do not work as intended. 👇3/ https://gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/08/08/where-from-here/ …
With obvious global slowdown and global debt bubble combined with the ability of central banks to resuscitate in a #recession mostly gone, what are analysts and economists waiting for?
A "divine" announcement by central authorities that a collapse is imminent? 🙄4/
We, economists, have failed on the most important task given to us: predicting recessions/crises.
Universities are full of brilliant people building new estimators and working on already failed macroeconomic models.
Yet, #forecasting remains an ostrazised sub-field. 5/
2008 should have changed, how we approach, study and teach #economics , but it didn't. We failed to reform.
Resorting to #MMT or other money conjuring madness could be the nail in to coffin of our discipline.
Let's hope we have the wisdom to avoid at least that. 6/6
You can follow @mtmalinen.
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.
Enjoy Threader? Sign up.
Threader is an independent project created by only two developers. The site gets 500,000+ visits a month and our iOS Twitter client was featured as an App of the Day by Apple. Running this space is expensive and time consuming. If you find Threader useful, please consider supporting us to make it a sustainable project.