I keep wondering, why is it so difficult for analysts to believe that we're closing in a global economic crisis?
When we started to warn about the approaching collapse two years ago, I wholeheartedly understood that only few listened. 👇
However, ... 1/
...things are radically different now.
We now know that the expansion since 2009 has been massively supported by the central banks and mostly China.
As a results of this, the global productivity growth collapsed, while the balance sheet of central banks "exploded. 2/
As we've warned since September 2017, the ability of China to uphold the debt-fueled global expansion is in irreversible decline: http://gnseconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Q-review-3_2017.pdf …
It's also plainly obvious that the negative int. rates and QE -programs do not work as intended. 👇3/ https://gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/08/08/where-from-here/ …
With obvious global slowdown and global debt bubble combined with the ability of central banks to resuscitate in a #recession mostly gone, what are analysts and economists waiting for?
A "divine" announcement by central authorities that a collapse is imminent? 🙄4/
We, economists, have failed on the most important task given to us: predicting recessions/crises.
Universities are full of brilliant people building new estimators and working on already failed macroeconomic models.
Yet, #forecasting remains an ostrazised sub-field. 5/
2008 should have changed, how we approach, study and teach #economics , but it didn't. We failed to reform.
Resorting to #MMT or other money conjuring madness could be the nail in to coffin of our discipline.
Let's hope we have the wisdom to avoid at least that. 6/6
You can follow @mtmalinen.
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