People think trade war with China will cause a recession but trade with China is only 3% of GDP (US exports to China will decline by barely 0.1% of GDP); however consumer spending is 70% of GDP - so the key is to keep people consuming (phones, cars, houses) or else GDP collapses.
2. Relentless talk of a recession by various pundits will spook people into curbing their spending, prompting the public to save up for a rainy day (those scarred by the last recession are more likely to save up even more) which will trigger the recession.
3. As I have been saying 👇…we are now at a point where reckless talk of a recession will become a self-fulfilling prophecy… https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/former-omb-director-halt-in-us-consumer-spending-would-bring-recession.html …
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