Tren Griffin @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Sep. 01, 2019 1 min read

Dochi is a Japanese mochi doughnut shop that launched in the Uwajimaya food court in Seattle. Since opening two weeks ago there's been ~ a two-hour wait for its Ube Glaze and Taro Pebbles donuts until it sells out early in the day. Do they have a moat?  https://www.seattletimes.com/life/food-drink/20-new-openings-in-seattle-including-a-ramen-shop-from-an-iron-chef-and-a-japanese-donut-shop-that-draws-lines-two-hour-long/ 

The whisper number from analyst channel checks is that the mochi donuts may be coated with scores of "fruity" taro pebbles, which is known to attract day traders. These mochi donuts have higher trading value than a cold chicken sandwich. Donut half life is still short tho.

Caption this picture of traders getting caught with hard to trade rapidly depreciating zero terminal value cold chicken sandwiches. Wrong answers only please!

My test for determining whether a moat exists is quantitative and has been adopted verbatim from work done by Michael Mauboussin here:  https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=em&document_id=1066439791&serialid=RojFyPPuyB52GjdsfOiNhlbEB2L63HISLZqSTpL1p48%3d  A business that has only been open a few weeks doesn't meet the quantitative moat existence test since that takes years.

It is possible to better forecast whether the quantitative test for a moat will be met by considering qualitative factors like: 1. Supply-Side Economies of Scale and Scope; 2. Demand-side Economies of Scale (Network Effects); 3. Brand; 4. Regulation; 5. Int. prop. and 6. Culture.


You can follow @trengriffin.



Bookmark

____
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.

Enjoy Threader? Sign up.

Threader is an independent project created by only two developers. The site gets 500,000+ visits a month and our iOS Twitter client was featured as an App of the Day by Apple. Running this space is expensive and time consuming. If you find Threader useful, please consider supporting us to make it a sustainable project.