I have railed against China a lot in recent weeks, for what I believe is good reason, but I still remain optimistic about China & its technology. China Tech is growing more impressive everyday, and China is the society to bet on for leapfrogging the world to solve climate change.
At the same time, the political environment has changed so drastically in just the last 3 years. Some of this may pullback post-2020, but the China of today is not a foreigner-friendly country. The window of Chinese bootstrapping & incubation has closed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzzERglFgj8 …
The Huawei situation, and Hong Kong coming to the forefront, are just more indicators of what you could already see coming. It's not just a danger for the dissident and Hongkongers, but an unwelcome, dangerous environment for entrepreneurs & talent alike. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McoQa6jWc-s …
When the long-time China residents, often highlighting its greatest strengths to a global audience, are rapidly self-deporting and setting up contingency plans to protect their lives, what comes next? They probably made the right decision by running.
The influence across global enterprises has been known for a long time. They used to just be concerns. Now they're facts. History tells us crony-padding is simply not healthy, and will destroy these businesses. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/business/cathay-pacific-chairman-resigns.html …
We truly face a lot of questions about how to manage and decipher influence, about how to balance market access and beliefs. We're not near a solution. But the China of today now silences Disney — and Versace, Coach, Givenchy, and Gucci alike. What's next?
While some in the U.S. are weaponizing the trade imbalance to constrict China, to setback military ambition & imperialism, China is increasingly looking inward too. That may prove more consequential than the ports, highways, and South China Sea railguns. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/05/world/asia/china-hong-kong-protests.html …
A fascinating society, that will face deep setbacks in the years to come, but will emerge more powerful w/ stronger technology and ambition. I hope China proves me wrong and dissolves the bubbles & overreach — but the most viable China strategy today is one of distancing yourself
You can follow @_DanielSinclair.
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