If a tech company is investigated for antitrust, you should probably buy the stock
Worst case for Facebook & Google is that they are broken up, which I put at < 2% chance. If YouTube & Instagram are spun out it would create massive share holder value
These AGs have a < 2% chance of doing anything really meaningful, as America can’t afford to ankle our best companies in the face of the coming global competition from Chinese internet companies —- @tiktok_us, TikTok, TikTok!
Likely case, > 50%, is $FB & $googl are no longer able to purchase startups in their core verticals, like @instagram, @youtube (ads) and WhatsApp.
Hilarious since FB/Google have 90%+ market share — too late!
Obvious action against Google is how many ads/servivces they can put above organic results—& how poorly those ads are labeled
@mattcutts lied that Google didn’t change search results in favor of Google services; sure organic didn’t change—it was pushed 3-7 links down!!! 🤔
The discovery process will be brutal for google and facebook; lots of embarrassing stuff will come out I’m sure... it will be a distraction for management, but it will results in less than a 5% impact on these businesses. They can easily manage it.
If you bought Microsoft stock on the “bad news” of the antitrust case, or through the settlement, and you held you did fine. Their “lost decade” was likely not about antitrust, it was more about not embracing emerging mobile platforms.
Facebook can easily solve their problems: offer folks a $10 subscription
Google can easily solve their problems: share more revenue with content companies — including PAYING content companies if they snip answers/data from their pages.
Both would make them less hated.
You can follow @Jason.
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