Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Founder/CEO - Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group, Business Cycle Economist, Investment Strategist, Economic Historian, Traveller and Rum Drinker.. Sep. 16, 2019 1 min read

So, we are in a Fed easing cycle and ISM is below 50 and falling and YC inverted...

The bond market just tightened 50bps in the sell off.

The money markets are tightened to wipe out the coming 25bpc cut

And will tighten much more as a HUGE $600bn of liquidity is drained.

Oil prices tighten financial conditions.

The dollar is rising again, tightening conditions.

The US and China are engaged in economic warfare which equates to more tightening

There are increasing tariffs on the EU too.


Geopolitical tensions are extremely high.

Ford got downgraded to junk, risking the start of the Doom Loop.

And then we are going into seasonal pension fund selling for Baby Boomers (RMD).

It’s probably nothing, right? Q4 should be a breeze..

You can follow @RaoulGMI.


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