Kellogg was on the Trump campaign's NatSec team—whose numerous contacts with foreign nationals it later lied about—and was discussed as a Flynn replacement, so he may have an inside track. But I don't know the others—i.e. how much Trump has already brought them inside his sphere.
1/ If Fleitz (Bolton's CoS) gets it, Trump plans on continuing to keep his NSA out of the loop; if Gordon-Haggerty was involved in approving Trump's illegal, clandestine Saudi nuclear deal (sans "123 agreement"), she's "inside" the loop; O'Brien is apparently a Pompeo loyalist.
2/ Waddell would seem to have the worst chance—as he's tied to McMaster, who clashed with Trump loyalists. In other words, we're still on track for Trump to run a "search," then simply pick someone who's already in his confidence with respect to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE.
You can follow @SethAbramson.
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