Teri Kanefield @Teri_Kanefield Author, Lawyer (U.C. Berkeley) My threads are here: terikanefield-blog.com/ Bio here: terikanefield.com/about-me George Papadopoulos called me deluded Sep. 21, 2019 3 min read

(Thread) Trump Emboldened

Will Trump get away with this latest?
Answer: It depends

Spoiler: It looks to me like lots of Trump critics are giving the Republican leadership a good reason to CONTINUE shielding Trump👇

“What?” you ask.

Stick with me here.
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-echo-trump-in-suggesting-whistleblower-complaint-is-politically-motivated/2019/09/20/10d1e602-dbdc-11e9-adff-79254db7f766_story.html 

1/ I’ll say at the outset that the whistleblower case is exactly what the drafters of the Constitution had in mind for an offense worth of impeachment and removal.

It’s also similar to other behavior we’ve seen from Trump.

It’s not a one-off.

2/ Evidently one of the phone calls occurred a day after Mueller testified.
 https://time.com/5682383/trump-whistleblower-complaint/ 

I take it that Trump felt confident that he had enough allies who he viewed as loyal enough to protect him.
He was thus emboldened.

Remember, Trump demands and rewards loyalty.

3/ I also take it to mean that when the House impeaches, if the Senate then acquits, Trump will be even more emboldened.

Once articles of impeachment are drawn up, it will be hard (probably impossible) for the House to conduct any more impeachment hearings or inquiries.

4/ If Article of Impeachment are drawn up, and the Senate acquits, I don't think the House can say "Wait! Let's do it again! We have even more evidence."

Legally they can probably impeach (meaning vote on Articles of Impeachment) repeatedly.

But Senate trials are a big deal.

5/ As a political matter, I don't think we get do-overs.

Actually impeaching—drawing up the Articles of Impeachment—should happen at the end of the investigation.

It seems to me that acquittal in the Senate may actually embolden Trump.

Plus . . .

6/ . . . if House investigations are effectively over, Trump becomes untouchable.

I don’t see how anyone can argue that an impeachment, followed by an acquittal in the Senate will stop the lawbreaking.

7/ In another thread I'll explain why I also don't think gathering the facts and just censuring (or voting to impeach and not sending the matter to the Senate) will stop this behavior.

(Basically Trump's strategy is to torpedo facts. He won't care. He'll say it's just partisan.)

8/ That’s why I say that Trump is only part of the problem.

The other part is that he is being shielded by a major political party.

There is a strange thing happening on Twitter.

Each time Trump does something outrageous, everyone slams the Democratic leadership.

9/ I have a hard time wrapping my mind around it.

If you stop to think about it, it’s bizarre.

The House is trying to conduct oversight.
They're being stonewalled at every turn.

But Twitter slams the people being stonewalled for not doing enough.

10/ Look how well this works: Whenever Trump does something scandalous, everyone attacks Pelosi. 

Why not attack House Republican leadership for the stonewalling and outright support of this president’s behavior?

Scott Dworkin asks the right question:

11/ So far, nothing that has come to light will sway Republican leadership to stop shielding Trump.

If you don’t believe nothing so far has swayed the GOP leadership, watch last week’s Lewandowski hearing.

My personal hope has been that something comes to light. . .

12/. . . from these investigations that will cause even the GOP leadership to stop shielding Trump.

Because until that happens, we're stuck with Trump.

The drafters of the Constitution deliberately made it hard to remove a sitting president.

13/ Requiring 2/3 vote in the Senate, followed by impeachment in the House, means that a sitting president cannot actually be removed without broad popular support.

The Democrats are doing things the long way and the hard way, pushing to get the ALL evidence . . .

14/ . . . and litigating the stonewalling.

Some people want the House to use GOP tactics. For why that's a bad idea, see:

Lots of people are attacking the law-followers and the Constitution-respecters. Who does that help?

end/

(I may add comments)

15/ Sorry everyone. I left off the link to the thread I mentioned in the last tweet.

Let's see if I do it right now.



This thread is more of a summary of the position. I'll attach a more comprehensive thread . . .

16/ Here’s a more comprehensive explanation:

A Never Trump who still holds reactionary values (just doesn’t like Trump) has a motive to urge Democrats to use Hardball: It will Destroy Trump, the Democrats, and Democratic institutions.
Win—win-win.

All of my threads are also blog posts.  https://terikanefield-blog.com/trump-emboldened/ 

For this one, I combined two threads, yesterday's and today's.


You can follow @Teri_Kanefield.



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