Seth Abramson
+ Your AuthorsArchive @SethAbramson Attorney. Professor. Metajournalist. NYT bestselling author. @Newsweek columnist seen @CNN @BBC &c. Metamodernist. Podcaster. Latest books: bit.ly/ProofSeries Sep. 22, 2019 2 min read

I no longer know (in real time) any Democrats who believe that anyone but Warren will be the Democratic nominee, a view I've held since the New Hampshire Democratic Convention. Biden's destined to fade; Sanders' ceiling is hard; all the others had their chance to rise but didn't.

1/ The irony is that Trump is going to be impeached for, among many other things, a collusion plot whose predicate was the stupid and untutored presumption that Joe Biden would *definitely* be the Democratic nominee. So much for the idea of @realdonaldtrump as a political genius.

2/ Something wholly unexpected could of course occur, but what I said at the beginning of this thread is, I think, a reasonably objective analysis of the trajectory of the 2020 presidential race, which I would argue has been almost crystal clear for about a month and a half now.

3/ Hopefully all America now understands the difference between impeachment and removal, so that when I say Trump will be impeached, you understand that the Democrats can do that whenever they want, even if they almost certainly cannot remove him from office due to GOP treachery.

4/ So what does this mean? Certainly not that anyone must abandon their candidate, as everyone should support who they like until the person drops out. But all Democrats should start watching video of Warren—who's incredible—to get comfortable with the idea of her as the nominee.

5/ Were I any candidate *besides Biden or Sanders*, I'd be trying to stay in the race as long as possible, as with each new drop-out, there's a chance for those remaining to start to register higher support in polls. The second/third most popular candidate has at least a VP shot.

6/ As for Biden and Sanders, they of course should stay in, as both may well have double-digit(ish) floors even if neither has any chance of being selected as the VP candidate if Warren is indeed the nominee. But 6 to 9 other current candidates *could* have a shot at the VP slot.

7/ This analysis is based on watching the (once 27) candidates' performances not just in state and national polls but on the stump, too, for over 6 months. I don't think folks realize how much better of a campaigner Warren is becoming with each passing day. She's learning *fast*.

8/ I've also thought for some time that due to the historically large and talented Democratic field, there's a much greater than usual chance that those candidates who don't end up on the Democratic ticket will nevertheless serve in a post-Trump administration as cabinet members.


You can follow @SethAbramson.



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