Teri Kanefield @Teri_Kanefield Author, Lawyer (U.C. Berkeley) My threads are here: terikanefield-blog.com/ Bio here: terikanefield.com/about-me George Papadopoulos called me deluded Oct. 03, 2019 2 min read

I'm not sure it's risky. It may be his best move.

💠2/3 vote in the Senate is required for removal from office.

💠Less than 2/3 vote in the Senate will allow Trump to claim he was acquitted and fully exonerated.

💠Many (or most) Senators will vote with their constituents.

1/

💠Trump's solid base (about 33%)* is not evenly distributed. His base is concentrated more heavily in the small, rural states more heavily represented in the Senate.

💠 He can't prevent impeachment. He's looking for a Senate "acquittal."

2/

That 1/3 comes from lots of places, including psychologists who tell us that about 1/3 of the population has what used to be called an "anti-democratic personality" and is now called an "authoritarian personality."

See, for example:  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318260321_The_Right-Wing_Authoritarianism_Scale 

3/

I totally agree that this strategy of doubling down on his base means the Republicans to lose by a landslide in 2020.

But I don't think Trump is thinking that far ahead.
He's trying to save his presidency.



4/

We've known for a while that impeachment is coming.

We've also known that the bigger challenge is removal in the Senate.

This is why Pelosi and Schiff are working to create an airtight case that will make it difficult or impossible for GOP Senators to side with Trump.

/end

Adding questions and comments.

It seems to me that if McConnell wants Trump out, he'll try to get a secret vote.
If McConnell wants Trump to be able to declare himself fully exonerated, he'll have an open vote.

McConnell will decide based . . .

. . . on what he thinks will save the GOP.

The key is building an airtight case in the House, making it hard for the Senate to acquit.

That authoritarian 1/3 will believe any lie he tells. See my slate article:  https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/trump-lies-kavanaugh-khashoggi.html 
The Senators, though, will know he's lying.

Another comment⤵️ …
We're in uncharted territory, so who knows?

The Constitution doesn't give many guidelines, just that the Chief Justice presides, and 2/3 is required to remove.

The understanding is that the Houses of Congress devise their own rules.

Exactly right:
By openly calling for other countries to investigate Biden, Trump
💠plays the part of the strongman, unintimidated by the Dems, and
💠invites his base to say, "So? What's wrong with that?" (remember they buy the lies about Biden.)

Agree completely. This has been my refraind for months. The Democrats won in 2018 by 8 points. Do that in a presidential election, and it's a landslide.
Cheating works with close elections.

Everyone can help with 2020. Want to know what you can do? . . .


You can follow @Teri_Kanefield.



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