Steve Bullock+ Your Authors @GuitarMoog New Album, One Thousand Days, out now exclusively through @EUCitizensChamp (link below). 100% of proceeds fo to @the3million. Oct. 04, 2019 1 min read + Your Authors

On the whole "UK will get Orbán to veto an extension" thing, there seems to be an assumption that right-wing nationalists are more concerned with helping RW nationalists in other countries than they are with what they perceive to be their own national & nationalist interests.

This is wrong. It is literally 'the thing' about RW nationalists that they care about their power in there own country. Just as Trump will not put Britain First, neither will Orbán put the interests of the UK above his own and what he perceives to be Hungary's.

We've seen first Le Pen, then Salvini step back sharply from anti-EU membership positions to anti-Brussels but pro-continuing membership positions, and this is also where Orbán is.

He thinks the EU are a pain in the arse, but he doesn't want Hungary to leave it.

I wouldn't rule out him attempting to use a threat of a veto to gain advantage in other areas. Every Member State always has the option of that on any major unanimity issue.

Orbán understand the EU though, and that stuff like that has other serious costs associated with it.

When it comes down to it, there is nothing that UK could offer that would outweigh the cost to Orbán of using a veto, particularly as it would be obvious that Johnson had put him up to it.

Yes, he could just go rogue, as any EU27 leader could. But Orbán is a slick political operator, and there would need to be a massive prize for him for doing so to offset the massive political cost.

Until anyone can explain what that prize could be, I'm deeply sceptical.

You can follow @GuitarMoog.


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