Stephen Wolf+ Your Authors @PoliticsWolf @DKElections staff writer covering voting rights, gerrymandering, maps, & poli sci. Get the Voting Rights Roundup weekly newsletter Oct. 10, 2019 1 min read + Your Authors

Imagine if Republicans hadn't mostly stood by Trump after Access Hollywood. He loses 2016 but the GOP keeps the Senate, blocks any Clinton judges, & the GOP makes big gains in 2018 & wins in 2020. Instead, Trump wrecked US institutions & Warren could win in 2020 with a Dem Senate

Maybe the latter scenario of a big Warren win is unlikely, but the fact that it's actually a decent possibility is a sign of how Republicans sacrificed the country's institutions for short-term gains with Trump that they may not have needed anyway. Winning at any cost has costs

If Trump loses as badly in 2020 as his horrid approval rating suggests, he could lose states like AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME, & NC that have several key GOP-held Senate seats up. He risks not just a loss but a 1980-style wipeout that could empower a much more progressive Warren govt

It's still extremely early. But where I'm sitting, it's astonishing how much Republicans are banking on the most consistently unpopular president in modern history to lead them into 2020. If impeachment numbers approach his approval rating, the GOP is screwed in a fair election

No, as my last several years of work would indicate. If Republicans actually faced fair elections, their 2020 Senate majority would be toast, but the GOP could lose by millions of votes as they did in 2016 & 2018 yet retain control. Not to mention the Electoral College

And of course, we can only imagine what lawbreaking Trump will commit to ensure he wins re-election. The last few weeks have illustrated just how little he gives a damn about the rule of law. He'll direct the FBI to do whatever the agents are willing to do to screw his opponent

And we also know that Russia's dictatorship is all in on backing Trump as it seeks to destabilize democracies across the Western World. The 2020 elections are a critical test for American democracy that it could very well fail

You can follow @PoliticsWolf.


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