"Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
George Soros is very focused on “expected value.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/25iq.com/2013/07/30/a-dozen-things-about-investing-ive-learned-from-george-soros/amp/ …
Expected value is equal to the weighted-average value for the distribution of possible outcomes (the payoff for a given outcome is multiplied by the probability that this outcome will occur). A bet which is unexpected by the crowd is only wise when expected value is positive.
Investing is a potentially net-present value positive activity (the likelihood of the net present value of the potential benefits minus the likelihood network present value of the potential loses, is positive). Gambling by definition is a “negative net present value” activity.
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