Josh Wolfe+ Your Authors @wolfejosh Co-Founder @Lux_Capital Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe Nov. 07, 2019 1 min read + Your Authors

1/ An invitation—
(to the genuinely open-minded intellectually honest)

Optimists believe TSLA is “cash flow positive”

Skeptics believe TSLA uses misleading accounting tricks (too hard for non-analysts to spot)—to win headlines + pump the stock.

An interesting QUIZ...

2/ (Believe it is via @WhitneyTilson + @glenntongue)...

3/ Here are TSLA’s own words + Bloombergs reporting of the financials that suggest “cash flow” +

4/ Here is a correction to the debt calculation...

5/ And an inclusion of financing leases with total net debt—
and yet despite $800M of equity raised this year—the mystery is where did ~$1B of “free cash flow” go?

6/ The explanation is (1) capital leases*
*and look at how Amazon now very clearly in contrast lays out this info...

7/ Then there is “distributions paid to non-controlling interests in subsidiaries” with confusing accounting + inclusion of cash that doesn’t belong to Tesla shareholders

8/ Here is the footnote

9/ Then going back 2 years they changed how they record resale “guarantees” + the accounting of “collateralized lease borrowings”

10/ They then conveniently stopped using this adjustment in 2018 because it LOWERS how they calculate “free cash flow”

11/ Adding all the above—the conclusion below is:
TSLA doesn’t generate “free cash flow” at all

12/ It’s just the misleading + misdirection that‘s too clever to be accidental

& if it’s intentional—the super sad shame? the mission is objectively worthy + noble (few critics TSLA disagree w/ that)

just wish the motives/accounting/accountability had integrity + honesty


You can follow @wolfejosh.



Bookmark

____
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.

Enjoy Threader? Sign up.

Since you’re here...

... we’re asking visitors like you to make a contribution to support this independent project. In these uncertain times, access to information is vital. Threader gets 1,000,000+ visits a month and our iOS Twitter client was featured as an App of the Day by Apple. Your financial support will help two developers to keep working on this app. Everyone’s contribution, big or small, is so valuable. Support Threader by becoming premium or by donating on PayPal. Thank you.