Tren Griffin @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Nov. 16, 2019 1 min read

Earnings are a clue about long term future cash flows. They are a too irresistible short cut for a writer who wants to avoid doing a valuation of a business:

"Investors would now have to fork out about 41 times estimated earnings to buy Ferrari stock."

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ferrari-trails-behind-porsche-in-one-crucial-race/2019/11/05/5cd8f482-ffa9-11e9-8341-cc3dce52e7de_story.html 

"Industrial free cash flow now projected to exceed EUR0.6 billion, supported by the strong collection of the advances of the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2, lower tax payment and the phasing on some investment programs between 2019 and 2020."  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/11/04/ferrari-nv-race-q3-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx 

The number of times I have bought a partial interest in a business based on something like:

"Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Formed Double Top Chart Pattern"

is never.

25iQuiz: Is this analysis useful in valuing a stock? "Dudenhoffer determined the average $80,000 profit by taking annual revenue and EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) for the first half-year reports of 2018 and dividing it by the number of sold cars." https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/17/profit-ferrari-makes-per-car.html 

How much of the value of Ferrari as calculated in a DCF is terminal value?

How much will that terminal value be impacted by the electrification of performance cars?

How deep under ground is the assumption about terminal value buried in a P/E multiple?

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/ferrari-ceo-races-to-build-companys-brand-11573300801 


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