Stephen Wolf+ Your Authors @PoliticsWolf Staff Writer @DKElections covering voting rights, gerrymandering, maps, & poli sci. Get the free Voting Rights Roundup weekly newsletter dkel.ec/votingr Dec. 02, 2019 2 min read + Your Authors

BREAKING: A state court has unanimously refused to block North Carolina's new Republican-gerrymandered congressional map in a setback for #FairMaps. #NCpol #NCGA

The plaintiffs could still appeal to the 6-1 Democratic NC Supreme Court. The lower court said there was insufficient time to redraw the maps for 2020 after the plaintiffs waited too late to sue, but the current map was redrawn in February of the 2016 cycle #NCpol #NCGA

If this map stands, it would lock in an 8-5 Republican advantage even in years such as 2018 when Democrats win more votes statewide. I've shown how this map is a gerrymander & how a fairer map could result in a 7-6 R or 7-6 D split:  https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/11/15/1899654/-North-Carolina-GOP-enacts-new-congressional-map-but-litigation-remains-likely-to-continue  #NCpol #NCGA

At particular issue with the North Carolina GOP's new congressional gerrymander is how it cracks the Sandhills/Fayetteville region among two districts. A nonpartisan alternate could place that region in a single Dem-leaning district like this  https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/11/15/1899654/-North-Carolina-GOP-enacts-new-congressional-map-but-litigation-remains-likely-to-continue  #NCpol #NCGA

I've calculated the 2004-2018 election results & a number of demographic stats for North Carolina's new Republican congressional gerrymander here. They confirm that it favors an 8-5 GOP majority on average:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h6zUCg8K0tcOM4HsISJpWfylYv7MYQNl7cheAqtG6UI/edit?usp=sharing  #NCpol #NCGA

What's so infuriating about this result is that (1) Republicans got a THIRD chance to draw a constitutional map after their first two gerrymanders were struck down & (2) the plaintiffs waited a year after 2018 & months after losing in federal court to sue

On the bright side, Democrats would be practically guaranteed to flip two House seats (#NC02 & #NC06) under the GOP's new, less extreme congressional gerrymander, but the new map likely prevents Dems from winning a majority of seats  https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/15/1899654/-North-Carolina-GOP-enacts-new-congressional-map-but-litigation-remains-likely-to-continue 

Justice delayed is justice denied when it comes to redistricting. Rulings like this one allow legislators to get away with illegal gerrymanders for an election or two simply because litigation takes so long & taxpayers pay the cost

Election mappers can find GIS shapefiles & census block assignment files for the new congressional map here under "show all associated documents"  https://www.ncleg.gov/BillLookUp/2019/H1029 

North Carolina’s court-supervised congressional redistricting is officially over. The GOP’s new map means Dems will gain 2 seats for an 8-5 GOP majority, but Dems have little hope of a 7-6 R or 7-6 D majority even if they win the popular vote like in 2018


You can follow @PoliticsWolf.



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