Tren Griffin @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Dec. 12, 2019 1 min read

1/ Big demand for X ≠ the business will be financially attractive:

"Americans eat more ice cream per capita than any other people in the world, with most bought in supermarkets for consumption at home, leaving the category open to intense discounting."  https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/nestle-to-sell-u-s-ice-cream-business-to-joint-venture-11576087650 

2/ "The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage." Warren Buffett

3/ Example: Weed "grows like a weed" and there is competition from illegal suppliers.  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cannabis-company-stocks/ 

4/ “We have found in a long life that one competitor is frequently enough to ruin a business.”

Also: A video of Charlie Munger on competitive advantage: "It is *hard* to keep winning." - Feb 19, 2017 including why BRK made a "sector bet" on airlines.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMEINYjPA1k 


You can follow @trengriffin.



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