I increasingly expect from Senate Republicans a repeat of the Kavanaugh hearings: two to four Republicans crossing party lines on minor rules votes, but when either significant issues or the final question of removal arises, a party-line vote with maybe one defector on each side.
1/ Yesterday I did a survey of where Republicans in either the House or Senate stand on censure, just as a measure of whether Republicans are even close to seriously considering the charges against Trump. I found one representative and two senators even vaguely open to censure.
2/ I think it's important to consider the "butterfly effect" at a moment like this. Just as every action the president takes, no matter how frivolous or seemingly irrelevant, snowballs over time into an effect on our culture, the mere fact of impeachment plants a flag in history.
You can follow @SethAbramson.
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