Tren Griffin+ Your Authors @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Dec. 19, 2019 1 min read + Your Authors

Simba: "Lured?"

Mufasa: "Gross subscriber additions must be greater than net subscriber additions given churn."

Simba: "A business must grow to not shrink?"

Mufasa: "The math is unavoidable my son. Churn is an embedded aspect of the Circle of Life." 

Zazu: "Cowen analyst still expects Netflix to hit or exceed its fourth-quarter forecast of 7.6M subscriber additions." Blackledge wrote, "assuming a portion would have churned regardless of Disney+'s launch; incremental churn appears manageable."

Mufasa: "Iger will be amused."

Rafiiki: "About one-third of Disney Plus’ U.S. customers — or 8 million as of the end of November — are on one-year-free offer from Verizon for certain customers, while the remaining 66% are on paid plans, Cowen’s analysts estimated." 

Simba: "Will churn of Disney+ customer acquired via the Verizon free offer churn at a higher rate?"

Mufasa: "Customers that aren't acquired organically will churn at a higher rate."

Simba: "Organically?"

Mufasa: "Acquired via word of mouth. Nothing to do with processed food."

Simba: "What do you think of these survey based net addition and churn forecasts?

Zazu: "What you get depends on your assumptions, any sample bias etc. Margin of error is like hyenas- a constant danger."

Mufasa: "Use a margin of safety based approach to guard against mistakes."

You can follow @trengriffin.


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