Gavin Baker+ Your Authors @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. No investment advice, views all my own. Dec. 22, 2019 1 min read + Your Authors

1) Best thread of 2019. Idea that rates are low because humans are on the brink of functional immortality, thereby reducing the value of time, is fascinating.

And yes, there are *many* other drivers for rates.

Tweets 4-5, 10-11, 13-15, 29, 30, 32, 33, 51, 53, 56, 73-75 are 👌🥇

2) Health care people – I am aware of your skepticism about functional immortality and general belief that tech people are way too optimistic about this. Still a super interesting idea. Also made me go back and reread parts of “The Great Wave,” which is great.

3) And I am aware that US interest rates went from sub 4% in 1900 to 14% in early 1980s as lifespans extended by roughly 50% from 48 to 73 years (antibiotics). That is quite different than functional immortality and just highlights all the other drivers of rates.

4) Still thinking about the idea. If functional immortality happens, it's unlikely to be evenly distributed at first. Super unfortunate and wildly unfair, but likely true with enormous social and political implications.

(Stay with me, I'm coming back to interest rates 😀)

5) i.e. Income inequality drives time inequality which will create much more social and political instability.

And time inequality will drive even more income inequality. Talk about a vicious cycle that could lead to wild instability and dystopian futures.

6) As @laforeverhall notes, the first generation to live for 500 years will have an immense advantage - might be impossible to overcome. Will be way more powerful than inheriting money.

"Methuselahs" from "Altered Carbon." BTW - a case where the book really was 100x better.

7) i.e. The lifespan variance between high income and low income people might increase from and already unacceptable 10ish years to 100s of years. The ultimate inequality. "Elysium," etc.

8) All creating further pressure on the interaction between capitalism and democracy. And instability generally drives higher rates per "The Great Wave." Have wandered far afield from interest rates and immortality so wanted to bring it back! 😀

You can follow @GavinSBaker.


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