Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. investorfieldguide.com/baker/ No investment advice, views all my own. Jan. 04, 2020 1 min read

1) Destiny 2 players on Stadia down ~60% one month post launch. Really curious to see xCloud.

Stadia tech is super impressive, interesting that resources were devoted to this vs. much more strategic products like GSuite or payments.

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2020/01/03/destiny-2s-google-stadia-population-has-dropped-by-more-than-half-since-launch/#4e5bd3442604 

2) Only way Stadia succeeds from here is to have incredible exclusive content. Halo was critical to the success of the first Xbox; there is a reason PS/Xbox invest so much in exclusive content

Gaming is not music or movies - it is all about “head content” rather than the tail.

3) And note that streaming is a delivery technology rather than a business model. Most streaming services to date just happen to be based on subscription models in industries where bundling tail content with good discovery tools created value; unlikely to be the case in gaming.

4) Another potential success path for Stadia would be to white label its technology and power a streaming service for every launcher: Steam, Epic, Origins, Battle, UPlay, Rockstar, etc.

5) I am still quite bullish on the potential for streaming to drive significant value for the videogame industry by lowering the cost to play, increasing potential occasions and engagement and pressuring platform take rates.

6) Stadia just the first iteration of cloud gaming and the first iteration of a fundamentally new experience rarely succeeds. See the Newton, the PalmPilot and my favorite: the Rio PMP 300 MP3 player.

 https://consequenceofsound.net/2018/11/the-failed-mp3-player-that-changed-the-music-industry-forever/ 

7)


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