Tren Griffin+ Your Authors @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Jan. 15, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1/ Does Goldman’s Marcus service have product/market fit?
Deposits from Marcus were $60B at the end of the quarter, increasing $24B through the full year 2019. Credit card loans were $2B at the most recent quarter-end, up from $1B in the third quarter.  https://www.pymnts.com/earnings/2020/goldman-sachs-marcus-60b-deposits-digital-banking/ 

2/ “Goldman consumer bank its fledgling credit card business, contributes less than 3% of its overall revenues.”  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldman-sachs-marcus-idUSKBN1Z91US  "51% increase in credit loss provisions to $336M as retail loans soured."  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/goldman-sachs-gs-earnings-q4-2019.html 

3/ “Only once proven your value hypothesis do you move on to your growth hypothesis. The value hypothesis defines the what, the who and the how. What are you going to build, who is desperate for it, and what is the business model you are going to use to deliver it?” Andy Rachleff

4/ Is Goldman's Marcus service at risk of scaling prematurely? Scaling prematurely can happen if a growth hypothesis is pursued before the value hypothesis is proven.

Is consumer banking a "go big or go home" market for a business like Goldman and optimal strategy is different?

5/ The only way you know if you have product/market fit is if you get word of mouth” Andy Rachleff

How would Goldman know if it has product/market fit with Marcus? How reliable is net promoter score (NPS)?

Are consumer and enterprise P/MF different?  https://podcastnotes.org/2019/11/25/mike-maples-andy-rachleff-tim-ferriss-product-market-fit/ 

6/ Are there other quantitative approaches to proving product/market fit exists? How would you apply them to Goldman's Marcus?

“We view P/MF through 3 standard analyses:
•Growth Accounting
•Customer Cohorts
•Distribution of Product-Market Fit”
 https://podcastnotes.org/2019/11/25/mike-maples-andy-rachleff-tim-ferriss-product-market-fit/ 

7/ Overall, Goldman spent 68 cents for every dollar of revenue it produced in 2019, up from 64 cents per dollar the prior year. Goldman spent roughly $700m on growth initiatives in 2019, before taxes.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldman-sachs-results/goldman-pledges-concrete-expense-target-after-profit-decline-idUSKBN1ZE1K1 


You can follow @trengriffin.



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