Tren Griffin @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Jan. 19, 2020 1 min read

I decided to read sell-side analyst reports at 3AM to distract me from kidney stone pain that woke me up last night. These reports can be helpful in summarizing what has already happened. Adopting some of the recommendations in the reports would cause more pain than my stone.

Forecasts (AKA guesses) in analyst reports can be a good source of humor though. For example,

"Sixteen of the world’s 500 billionaires have space investments, which could grow from a US$360bn market today, to potentially as big as US$2.7tn by 2045E (source: ULA)."

"While only 560+ people have ever been to space vs. a 7bn+ global population, government spending on space is expected to reach $79bn by 2025 vs $62bn in 2016 and the space market involving nanosatellites, space tourism etc could reach nearly $1tn by 2030 (source: OECD, ULA)."

Imagine if you had to throw away your bike or car every time you used it. Reusable rockets were a huge change for launch costs. The direct and indirect implications of that are uncertain, which can be a source of informational or analytical edge. BAML:

You can follow @trengriffin.


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