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Tuomas Malinen+ Your Authors @mtmalinen PhD econ. Chief Economist of GnS Economics. Adj. Professor of Economics @ Uni Helsinki. Economic growth, economic crises, monetary unions and central banks. Mar. 04, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

You know.

Forecasting the onset of the #recession , and a crisis, has been exceptionally challenging this time around, but I think we got the timeline relatively correct in December 2017. 👇

A short thread. 1/6 

"As mentioned above, both the global central banks and China are planning to diminish their support for the global economy and the markets around the same time (H1 2018).

This would start what can only be a long and painful road towards returning to the market economy." 2/

"If the central banks and China really go through with their plans, noting that China can also just run out of options, 2018 is likely to be the year, when the first signals of the crisis will appear.

These include serious market turbulence, bank failures..." 3/

"...and possible panicky responses from the central authorities.

In 2019, the crisis would get to the full swing when the last efforts of the central authorities to uphold the global asset bubble would become exhausted."

Ok. All these can be debated, but... 4/

...we did see panicky responses in late 2018/early 2019 and, in my books, the crisis started on 16 September, 2019, when the #repo -market broke. 👇

I know. It's not perfect, but I think we got it rather close 🙂. 5/ 

Naturally, no one can foresee the onset of a pandemic, but it just finalizes the job central bankers and Chinese leaders have between 2009 and now!
#brace !
#economy #coronavirus #recession #Fed #ECB 

You can follow @mtmalinen.


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