Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Gavin Baker+ Your Authors @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. No investment advice, views all my own. Mar. 06, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1) Strange that China is the bull case. Car and coffee sales both down 80%ish in February and the recovery does not appear V-shaped so far. Curious to see how long China holds in given their economy is still export dependent.

2) Part of today’s weakness is about schools being closed in NYC and thousands quarantined.

Important to stay balanced - Biden, Fed are big positives. But uncertainty is still *very* high.

3) Guidance given only weeks ago is already being pulled.

Management teams have minimal insight.

4) Thought this was a helpful chart from the CDC courtesy of @ryaneshea

Fatality rate for Coronavirus likely skewed upwards by under diagnosis vs. the flu but still concerning. Disclaimer: I have absolutely zero expertise in this area.

5) Administration has clearly told the CDC to underreact as a way to minimize economic damage. Humanitarian/moral concerns aside, the lack of an effective CDC response is maximizing uncertainty, economic damage and mkt weakness.

6) Inadequate screening for overseas travelers.

7) Failure to protect health care professionals.

8) Local responses also suboptimal so far.

9) CDC and local responses will improve. This too shall pass. Coronavirus is improving in China and Korea.

But uncertainty is really high. “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.” If only it were so easy!

You can follow @GavinSBaker.


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