Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

Follow the World Health Organization's instructions to reduce your risk of infection:

1/ Frequently clean hands by using alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

2/ When coughing and sneezing cover mouth and nose with flexed elbow or tissue - throw issue away immediately and wash hands.

3/ Avoid close contact with anyone that has fever and cough.

Faheem Younus, MD @FaheemYounus Tweeting health etc. Chief Quality Officer and Chief of Infectious Diseases, University of Maryland UCH. Mar. 20, 2020 2 min read

A Thread: Why the COVID-19 pandemic will take >months and what can we learn from trees?

Look at the blooming trees. But recall how they persevere a harsh winter, every year.

Previous pandemics lasted 1-4 years. This one isn’t going away just because of the warm months ahead.

2/10: Currently, the US COVID-19 cases are doubling every 2-3 days. We don’t have enough doctors, nurses, hospital beds, ventilators, facemasks, tests, medicines. There is a huge capacity mismatch.

Major turbulence (like a freezing winter for a tree) ahead. Remain patient.

3/10: Winter hits the world differently. Hitting some countries, sparing some.

The US cities in NY, WA, CA are especially getting hit now. NJ/IL might be next. Infections rates will vary by location.

We will have to reassess the situation, repeatedly.

4/10: Shutdowns and other extreme measures of SD have an economic/social cost. But losing money = losing leaves; we can get it back. Losing people = losing the tree; it’s gone forever. Let's not fight shutdowns; instead, help the less fortunate among us and remain focused.

5/10: Despite all efforts, # of US coronavirus cases may cross 50,000 in March/April. Healthcare system, supply chain, businesses, economy may be jolted further. Tensions may rise. Leaves may fall. Remain patient, resolute, generous.

6/10: By April/May, COVID-19 testing may become widespread as private labs and home test kits become available. Policy decisions may become more data-driven. Learn more below:

Home testing:  https://time.com/5805953/home-covid-19-test-everlywell/ 

Private labs:  https://www.labcorp.com/assets-media/2330 
 https://www.questdiagnostics.com/home/Covid-19/ 

7/10: Data may compel the naysayers to accept reality. As supplies improve, people may start wearing facemasks in public (like China) to try and move on with life. The coronavirus curve may flatten/bend before fall. Closure policies may loosen.

8/10: An antibody test (to identify people who may have cleared the infection) will become available.  https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/ 

1000s of people may attain the “survivor” status. Good stories may start changing the narrative. Trees, itching to bloom again.

9/10: This “winter” of shutdowns/restrictions will test our nerves. Be kind, selfless, humble.

The biggest threat to this story is not the virus, but our own egos, our narrow agendas, our infighting.

Trees do annually, what we are being asked to do once.

10/10: By 2021, nations hit by the virus may start declaring -one by one - that they’re COVID-free.

Believe that winter of restrictions is coming but also believe, that with patience, prayer, and hard work we shall bloom again. Worry about the trees, not the leaves.


You can follow @FaheemYounus.



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