Caitlin Rivers, PhD+ Your Authors @cmyeaton Outbreak science + epidemiology + health security. Assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (@JHSPH_CHS). ELBI alum. Mar. 24, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1/ I'm often asked how we will know when the outbreak has peaked. The answer is complicated. We don’t have one single outbreak, we have many. A peak in one city may coincide with things heating up in another.

2/ And the truth is we won't recognize the peak until we are well past it. Even for seasonal influenza, which we know a great deal about, peak week is not obvious until much later.

3/ Things will look different depending on where and how you look, which will make it possible to tell almost any story. This will feel confusing and fraught. Again, I think we must take the long view.

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