Gavin Baker+ Your Authors @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. No investment advice, views all my own. Mar. 30, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1) High sensitivity to "initial conditions" around the virus and the stimulus creates a wide range of outcomes for the market.

Every day matters in terms of new cases, stimulus timing and when America begins to restart.

2) Wikipedia on Chaos Theory and the definition of "sensitivity to initial conditions:" an arbitrarily small change or perturbation of the current trajectory may lead to significantly different future behavior.

3) New cases are the most critical “initial conditions” variable and are showing early signs of flattening out.

Once new cases are declining, can start to frame when America might *begin* to restart.

4) New cases at a two week low in Italy is hopeful and we are tracking ever so slightly better than Italy on a per capita basis so far.

Obviously the market is discounting a lot more than just the stabilization in new cases seen so far.

5) Restarting in late April vs. late May is a huge difference economically.

If we are going to restart much later than Memorial Day, will need much more radical stimulus measures.

Sensitivity to initial conditions is just extraordinarily high.

6) The timing of stimulus distributions to SMBs and consumers is the next most critical "initial condition."

SMBs are being told by banks not to expect a loan for at least several weeks. That delay is the difference between life and death for many SMBs.

*Every* day matters.

7) The time taken to approve lenders really matters. Especially when it comes to Fintech lenders that can inject the cash/loans into the system the fastest.

8) Failing to allow for digital wallets as a distribution mechanism for the cash payments to consumers was a mistake given that many of the poorest Americans do not have bank accounts. And it would have been faster.

9) America and the world will get through this.

"The Americans always do the right thing, but only after they have tried everything else."

The progress - both policy and health response wise - relative to 10 days ago is impressive.

You can follow @GavinSBaker.


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