1) There is no true market price for an IPO until the lockup.
There will be no true market price for any stock - or the market - until companies report earnings and give guidance.
2) Companies are mostly pulling guidance and giving directional trends for March rather than giving new guidance.
This isn't enough to get a true market price IMO.
3) Quantitative investors, expectations focused investors, so many market participants need forward looking numbers.
And the sell side is generally - and understandably - not yet providing them given how wide the range of outcomes is right now.
4) Once companies begin to guide and frame the situation, we will get a true market price.
The "true market price" might be lower, might be higher.
Might make a new low, maybe not. Not making a market call, just observing.
5) Fact that many believed that the internet advertising cuts by MS were too deep just shows how much the market needs guidance.
I thought the new, lower estimates were quite optimistic!
6) Range of outcomes is *really* wide. This is a high uncertainty situation.
You can follow @GavinSBaker.
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