Gavin Baker+ Your Authors @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. No investment advice, views all my own. Apr. 03, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1) There is no true market price for an IPO until the lockup.

There will be no true market price for any stock - or the market - until companies report earnings and give guidance.

2) Companies are mostly pulling guidance and giving directional trends for March rather than giving new guidance.

This isn't enough to get a true market price IMO.

3) Quantitative investors, expectations focused investors, so many market participants need forward looking numbers.

And the sell side is generally - and understandably - not yet providing them given how wide the range of outcomes is right now.

4) Once companies begin to guide and frame the situation, we will get a true market price.

The "true market price" might be lower, might be higher.

Might make a new low, maybe not. Not making a market call, just observing.

5) Fact that many believed that the internet advertising cuts by MS were too deep just shows how much the market needs guidance.

I thought the new, lower estimates were quite optimistic!

6) Range of outcomes is *really* wide. This is a high uncertainty situation.

You can follow @GavinSBaker.


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